That’s one of the challenges our College Football Playoff forecast faces, but one of the fun parts, too. So while we’ve found that our model can do a reasonably good job of anticipating their decisions, it has to account for the group behaving in somewhat complicated ways. As you might imagine from a bunch of former coaches and college-administration types, they can sometimes resist the clean logic that an algorithm would love to impose. That doesn’t really work, however, in the case of the College Football Playoff’s selection committee, the group tasked with picking the nation’s four best teams at the end of each season. Simpler is usually better when it comes to model-building. The goal of any statistical model is to represent events in a formal, mathematical way - ideally, with a few relatively simple mathematical functions.
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